Srinagar, Sept 15: The Himalayas are approaching a potential tipping point as glaciers retreat at an accelerating pace, creating unstable glacial lakes and raising risks to water security and communities downstream, according to a study released this month.
Nearly 200 glacial lakes in India have been identified as high-risk, including 56 classified as “very high risk”, leaving millions of people living downstream potentially exposed to glacial lake outburst floods and other hazards, the study found.
The findings come amid growing concerns over accelerating Himalayan ice loss and its impact on river flows, with the region expected to approach “peak water” by the middle of the century — the point at which river flows stop increasing and begin to decline.
The study warned that retreating glaciers are leaving behind unstable lakes held back by loose rock and ice above valleys where millions of people live.
“Himalayan glacier mass loss has accelerated in recent decades,” the study said, while noting that only 21 glaciers are currently monitored on the ground out of an estimated 40,000 glaciers across the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region.
The Hindu Kush-Himalaya system stretches across eight countries, from Afghanistan to Myanmar, and serves as a critical source of water for hundreds of millions of people.
The report said the approach of “peak water” could have profound implications for water security, particularly as communities and economies across the region depend heavily on Himalayan river systems.
The Himalayas also have major economic significance for India, underpinning more than 20% of the country’s GDP and forming a critical part of the national economic infrastructure, according to the study.
Although the Himalayan region accounts for around 18% of India’s land area, it contributes roughly 35% of the country’s natural disasters, highlighting its growing vulnerability to climate and geological hazards.
The report was produced by sustainability advisory firm Systemiq in collaboration with the Integrated Mountain Initiative, the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and India’s G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment.
The study’s findings also follow the collapse of a Himalayan glacier along the Nepal-Tibet border in late August, which triggered cascading landslides and flash floods in downstream valleys.
At least 1,300 people have been confirmed dead and more than 5,300 remain missing across Nepal and China’s Tibet region following the disaster, according to the report.
The study underscored the need for stronger monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes, as accelerating ice loss and the formation of unstable water bodies increase the potential consequences for communities, infrastructure and water supplies across the Himalayan region.
