Jammu, Apr 1 — The Jammu and Kashmir government has identified five glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalaya as posing a “very high risk” of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), with potential threats to lives and infrastructure in downstream areas.
Replying to a question by MLA Tanvir Sadiq, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah told the Assembly that Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal and Bhagsar lakes fall under the “very high susceptibility” category.
The classification is based on scientific studies, including findings published in the Journal of Glaciology, which analysed 155 glacial lakes using hydro-geomorphic indicators such as expansion rate, dam stability and surrounding conditions.
“On the basis of these indicators… a small number of lakes including Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal and Bhagsar were categorised under the ‘very high susceptibility’ class,” the government said.
However, the Chief Minister clarified that high susceptibility does not indicate immediate danger. “This does not imply that the lake is currently unstable, actively breaching or likely to fail in the immediate future,” he said.
The government said a preliminary geospatial assessment has been carried out to map downstream exposure. “A first-order approximation of downstream exposure was undertaken… to identify habitations and critical infrastructure along potential flow paths,” Abdullah said.
According to the assessment, around 2,704 buildings, nearly 15 major bridges, segments of road infrastructure and one hydropower plant lie in vulnerable downstream zones across districts including Ganderbal, Shopian and Kulgam.
The Chief Minister said the findings provide a baseline for understanding vulnerability and prioritising further detailed studies.
He added that future measures include continuous monitoring through remote sensing and field assessments, installation of early warning systems, eco-zonation planning, and integration of GLOF risk into district-level disaster management plans.
The government noted that precise estimation of flood magnitude and warning time requires field-based bathymetric data, which is currently unavailable for most Himalayan glacial lakes.
It said efforts are underway to strengthen monitoring, including development of early-warning systems combining satellite data, field observations and real-time communication tools.